Jared, I read you daily as a Dirt subscriber (which hurts a bit more in AUD!) and this is one of the best things you have written. I’ve forwarded it to a bunch of people. As an economist, I spend a lot of time ranting about the looming GFC Mk 2, with the caveat that I have no idea when it will happen, but that it will happen. No
one seems to care. But they will. One day. Like you, I own a lot of gold. I’m also considering a shotgun and a German Shepard. I’m not sure your cats will be of much use…
Perhaps this demonstrates that we should be focusing education on math and economics, and not on teaching kids that we are all evil colonizers and that if they don’t switch to paper straws we will all boil to death. Of course, people will continue to vote for free stuff, and nobody will learn until it’s too late, at which time a new generation will forget the lessons and do it all over again.
This is one of the clearest expressions of financial dread I’ve read in a while—equal parts brutal, insightful, and darkly funny. The disconnect between public understanding and the bond market’s message is staggering. It’s not just about deficits—it’s about trust, math, and the consequences we’re willfully ignoring. Appreciate the candor and urgency here.
I remember as a child, over 60 years ago now, wanting my Mom to buy something, and she told me that she couldn't, we didn't have the money. I replied, "Just write a check!"
After she got me out of the store, without the item, she explained patiently that to pay for something with a check requires that we have the money in the bank to cover the check. Even at 7 or 8 years old, I got the concept. But the concept of "just write a check" is alive and well in Congress, and really, in the country as a whole. In the end, the system will collapse just as described by Hemingway's character when he spoke of his process of going bankrupt - gradually, and then suddenly.
I'm concerned about what the "suddenly" part may look like. Will it just be hyperinflation, or will it be a total collapse of all the systems that keep us alive? If the financial system goes down, will we be able to keep the lights on and the stores stocked? I suspect that the system as a whole is more fragile than we are willing to believe.
You put a 5-year old in the cockpit of a 747, and no matter how much you like like where he’s says he’s going, sooner or later he’s just going to fucking crash the plane. In this case, looks like sooner.
Bro..Engineers, Physicists, Chemists, etc took as much meaningful math as a "math major" for the sake of bond calculations. Also, half those "math majors" wussed out and are not BS and instead lesser BA degrees, inferior to all BS science degrees in math. Your 0.25% is simply not true. Enjoy the substack but this was one was a big miss.
Jared, you believed that the Cheap Suit was a-gonna cut the deficit?
"Really?!" as the conman asked incredulously in 'American Hustle.
Or that elon was legit -- haven't checked the news in a little while, has the Muskrat campaign against fraud reached the fertile shores of Medicare Advantage yet?
It's tempting to blame the politicians, but look in the mirror America....stop raiding your own treasury with your vote for more gov goodies. When asked what kind of government they created, Ben Franklin famously said "a republic if you can keep it"....like Jared said, we've lost the vigilance to keep our financial house in order.....who remembers the "deficit hawks"?
Now you see the core reason why the framers didn’t believe the masses deserved the vote; they’d just vote to pay themselves without any knowledge of the impacts.
Lots of people get it, but the politicians won't support DOGE because they each want to save their handouts. We have a weak president system and there is not much Trump can do to cut spending. There is wailing over even cutting fraud.
Always amazes me. Even smart friends turn into door knobs when you discuss the markets, let alone the fixed income markets. People understand stocks - there's a "story" behind a ticker ostensibly. Explaining the story behind 10,000 CUSIPs will get crickets. So tell people to think of it how James Carville described it, and sometimes that works.
Nicely written, I think there wouldn’t be much of a bond auction if the government didn’t have to issue so much debt to keep the lights on and people wouldn’t have to understand the crazy financial plumbing if governments were legally obligated to either run a surplus or be required to strive for a balanced budget as in Hong Kong and at worst allow for very temporary deficits.
Great piece, I really enjoyed the overall sense of frustration and underlying sense of futility. Living in Canada, I have come to learn that people are astonishingly ignorant and will make excuses for anything not matter how ridiculous. Ultimately we will pay and extreme high price for that, however until the cheap money printing ends this train is never gonna end.
I agree with you. I have held this view for so long I look silly. If the discussion comes up I get hushed down because everyone has herd from me for such a long time and nothing has happend, except that the stock market, Bitcoin etc has gone up. Regarding ”when money dies” I recall that the stock market did relatively OK ( real assets ). But I guess that leverage was not so high back them……
Jared, I read you daily as a Dirt subscriber (which hurts a bit more in AUD!) and this is one of the best things you have written. I’ve forwarded it to a bunch of people. As an economist, I spend a lot of time ranting about the looming GFC Mk 2, with the caveat that I have no idea when it will happen, but that it will happen. No
one seems to care. But they will. One day. Like you, I own a lot of gold. I’m also considering a shotgun and a German Shepard. I’m not sure your cats will be of much use…
Perhaps this demonstrates that we should be focusing education on math and economics, and not on teaching kids that we are all evil colonizers and that if they don’t switch to paper straws we will all boil to death. Of course, people will continue to vote for free stuff, and nobody will learn until it’s too late, at which time a new generation will forget the lessons and do it all over again.
It’s not in the interests of the state to educate on the evils of excess debt 😂
This is one of the clearest expressions of financial dread I’ve read in a while—equal parts brutal, insightful, and darkly funny. The disconnect between public understanding and the bond market’s message is staggering. It’s not just about deficits—it’s about trust, math, and the consequences we’re willfully ignoring. Appreciate the candor and urgency here.
I remember as a child, over 60 years ago now, wanting my Mom to buy something, and she told me that she couldn't, we didn't have the money. I replied, "Just write a check!"
After she got me out of the store, without the item, she explained patiently that to pay for something with a check requires that we have the money in the bank to cover the check. Even at 7 or 8 years old, I got the concept. But the concept of "just write a check" is alive and well in Congress, and really, in the country as a whole. In the end, the system will collapse just as described by Hemingway's character when he spoke of his process of going bankrupt - gradually, and then suddenly.
I'm concerned about what the "suddenly" part may look like. Will it just be hyperinflation, or will it be a total collapse of all the systems that keep us alive? If the financial system goes down, will we be able to keep the lights on and the stores stocked? I suspect that the system as a whole is more fragile than we are willing to believe.
Sixty years ago my grandfather raged against deficit spending. Year after year; yet nothing bad has happened so......not a problem.
For $38 USD you can buy a $1,000,000,000 Zimbabwe bill on Amazon. For $38 you can be a billionaire. Congratulations.
It is not a problem until it is. The Useless Eunuchs in Congress are to blame and we elected them. What does that say about us?
All Democrats and most Republicans believe in the Magic Money Machine. We will not learn from Zimbabwe so we are doomed to duplicate their experience,
Cheers.......
You put a 5-year old in the cockpit of a 747, and no matter how much you like like where he’s says he’s going, sooner or later he’s just going to fucking crash the plane. In this case, looks like sooner.
In this analogy, the U.S. Congress of the last forty years is the five year-old.
Bro..Engineers, Physicists, Chemists, etc took as much meaningful math as a "math major" for the sake of bond calculations. Also, half those "math majors" wussed out and are not BS and instead lesser BA degrees, inferior to all BS science degrees in math. Your 0.25% is simply not true. Enjoy the substack but this was one was a big miss.
Jared, you believed that the Cheap Suit was a-gonna cut the deficit?
"Really?!" as the conman asked incredulously in 'American Hustle.
Or that elon was legit -- haven't checked the news in a little while, has the Muskrat campaign against fraud reached the fertile shores of Medicare Advantage yet?
"Anyone? Anyone? Anyone?" -- Ben Stein
It's tempting to blame the politicians, but look in the mirror America....stop raiding your own treasury with your vote for more gov goodies. When asked what kind of government they created, Ben Franklin famously said "a republic if you can keep it"....like Jared said, we've lost the vigilance to keep our financial house in order.....who remembers the "deficit hawks"?
Now you see the core reason why the framers didn’t believe the masses deserved the vote; they’d just vote to pay themselves without any knowledge of the impacts.
Lots of people get it, but the politicians won't support DOGE because they each want to save their handouts. We have a weak president system and there is not much Trump can do to cut spending. There is wailing over even cutting fraud.
Always amazes me. Even smart friends turn into door knobs when you discuss the markets, let alone the fixed income markets. People understand stocks - there's a "story" behind a ticker ostensibly. Explaining the story behind 10,000 CUSIPs will get crickets. So tell people to think of it how James Carville described it, and sometimes that works.
We just quoted from When Money Dies last week! https://bewaterltd.com/i/163223648/weimar-when-ideas-trumped-technology
Nicely written, I think there wouldn’t be much of a bond auction if the government didn’t have to issue so much debt to keep the lights on and people wouldn’t have to understand the crazy financial plumbing if governments were legally obligated to either run a surplus or be required to strive for a balanced budget as in Hong Kong and at worst allow for very temporary deficits.
Gold, guns, and a getaway plan might work. Perhaps beans, bees, and bitcoin … less effective perhaps but you get the idea.
Great piece, I really enjoyed the overall sense of frustration and underlying sense of futility. Living in Canada, I have come to learn that people are astonishingly ignorant and will make excuses for anything not matter how ridiculous. Ultimately we will pay and extreme high price for that, however until the cheap money printing ends this train is never gonna end.
I agree with you. I have held this view for so long I look silly. If the discussion comes up I get hushed down because everyone has herd from me for such a long time and nothing has happend, except that the stock market, Bitcoin etc has gone up. Regarding ”when money dies” I recall that the stock market did relatively OK ( real assets ). But I guess that leverage was not so high back them……