Historians no longer call them the "dark ages" because they were not so dark. Studying history gives a completely different impression. There was less centralized authority at that time. The periods where giant buildings get built are generally very authoritarian with lots of cheap labor. Imperial Rome was not so wonderful except for the few. Another example would be Teotuacan and other large cities in the ancient Americas, all built with massive slave labor. The northern tribes without centralized government did fine and many are still doing well, but no large cities or big buildings.
Low expectations increase gratitude and lead to a happy life.
"Two years later, 9/11 happened, and that cemented it. Civilization has been in freefall ever since. Yes, but but but AI and EVs and SpaceX and blockchain and so on. Just because we are experiencing technological progress, does not mean we are experiencing social or political progress." EXACTLY. It's funny how some investment pros equate technological progress with "the ascent of man." I'd say it's the opposite. What's so good about everybody being glued to their mini screens all day... about robots and AI replacing human workers... or about you being able to virtually LIVE in the metaverse soon... or have an AI girlfriend who fulfills all your dreams and never talks back? To me, that's horrific, and a sign that we're more and more losing our humanity. I'd rather live an Amish-type lifestyle where people find true meaning in their life and work, than this automated Jetsons pipe dream everyone seems to think is so cool.
I feel like the secret is to maintain a balance between optimism or pessimism – going to close to either extreme leads to disaster. Unanticipated disaster for the optimists, expected disaster for the pessimists, but bad nonetheless. I think you’re absolutely right that things usually work out fine, but it’s good to keep your eyes open for those times when risk is elevated.
Many years ago I had a co-worker whose classic line was, "I'm not a pessimist, I'm an historian." And for irony, no one ever wanted to travel with him because he figured that if he got to the airport and couldn't immediately board the plane, then he got there too early.
My wife is a worrier, and I am not (usually), but I always try to consider the risks and to be prepared for low-probability but high-impact events.
Historians no longer call them the "dark ages" because they were not so dark. Studying history gives a completely different impression. There was less centralized authority at that time. The periods where giant buildings get built are generally very authoritarian with lots of cheap labor. Imperial Rome was not so wonderful except for the few. Another example would be Teotuacan and other large cities in the ancient Americas, all built with massive slave labor. The northern tribes without centralized government did fine and many are still doing well, but no large cities or big buildings.
Low expectations increase gratitude and lead to a happy life.
"Two years later, 9/11 happened, and that cemented it. Civilization has been in freefall ever since. Yes, but but but AI and EVs and SpaceX and blockchain and so on. Just because we are experiencing technological progress, does not mean we are experiencing social or political progress." EXACTLY. It's funny how some investment pros equate technological progress with "the ascent of man." I'd say it's the opposite. What's so good about everybody being glued to their mini screens all day... about robots and AI replacing human workers... or about you being able to virtually LIVE in the metaverse soon... or have an AI girlfriend who fulfills all your dreams and never talks back? To me, that's horrific, and a sign that we're more and more losing our humanity. I'd rather live an Amish-type lifestyle where people find true meaning in their life and work, than this automated Jetsons pipe dream everyone seems to think is so cool.
I feel like the secret is to maintain a balance between optimism or pessimism – going to close to either extreme leads to disaster. Unanticipated disaster for the optimists, expected disaster for the pessimists, but bad nonetheless. I think you’re absolutely right that things usually work out fine, but it’s good to keep your eyes open for those times when risk is elevated.
One more thing, I looked it up and both pronunciations of dour are considered correct now
Life expectancy has not declined, it has increased
What can I buy as an average Joe besides index funds?
Many years ago I had a co-worker whose classic line was, "I'm not a pessimist, I'm an historian." And for irony, no one ever wanted to travel with him because he figured that if he got to the airport and couldn't immediately board the plane, then he got there too early.
My wife is a worrier, and I am not (usually), but I always try to consider the risks and to be prepared for low-probability but high-impact events.
1999 was the peak? Damn! If I had known that I would have enjoyed it more....