Apropos to the issue two weeks ago about senior prom, I wonder what the prom king and queen are up to these days? Landscaping and Mary Kay. Or worse, dead or in jail.
In fourth grade, the prettiest girl in class was Alice (not her real name). Every boy’s crush. Alice was pretty average academically, but had everyone beat in the looks department. She graduated to the cool kids in high school and my assumption is that she did some partying. Lost track of her after that—not sure if she went to college, or where. Last I heard she was bartending and complaining bitterly on Facebook about politics. That’s a good outcome, as far as cool kids go.
Peaking early is a widely known phenomenon. If you are a parent, pray, pray, pray that your child is not popular. Popularity leads to partying which leads to drugs which leads to a loss of ambition. You know who the richest people in the world are? Nerds. Good luck explaining that to your kids. You know, son, the bully who stuffed you in the locker is going to be mowing your lawn someday. I actually had a bully my freshman year in high school. Nothing serious. I would be shocked if that guy is still alive. He had a truck with a bug guard that said “Bitch Lips.”
For my part, I wasn’t exactly part of the cool crowd in high school, but I wasn’t on the outs, either. I had friends in the band, I had friends in sports, I had friends who were art students, and I had friends who were dorks. I got along with pretty much everyone. I went to precisely one party in high school, had seven beers, and napped on the couch. Thought it was pretty dumb, and never did it again.
But peaking early isn’t just true in high school—it’s broadly true throughout life. You see this a lot on Wall Street—Junior gets hired to a desk out of college and makes seven figures by age 27. Out of the business at 34. LinkedIn profile that says “Private Investor” at 40. Selling insurance at 45. Unemployed at 52, and paying alimony out the wazoo. You see it over and over and over again. And even on the buy side, good performance is difficult to sustain over any period of time. Early success leads to hubris which leads to mistakes. After a few successively smaller fund launches, you end up as a CFP in Evanston, Illinois.
If you are to be successful, pray that it happens very slowly. I never made a 30 under 30 list or a 40 under 40 list. I doubt I’ll make a 70 under 70 list. I’m a late bloomer and a slow learner. There are some late bloomers in history, Warren Buffett being the most famous example, who didn’t really hit his stride until age 65. I’m not kidding when I say that I am a late bloomer. I have pretty good raw intelligence, but I am organizationally stupid, and I’m not good at advocating for myself. For example, I was 34 years old at Lehman Brothers and still a Vice President. A 34-year-old VP. Many people are surprised to hear that. Well, most of the guys I worked with are now selling insurance.
I was even a late bloomer in the Coast Guard. I almost got kicked out of the Academy (very long story), and did serviceably well on my first tour aboard a medium endurance cutter, but did not get the command endorsement. I found my footing in my second tour, in intelligence, where I was a star analyst, and might have had a very good career there, but left to go to Wall Street. But like I said, I am organizationally stupid, so there was zero probability of me making Admiral, which was my original goal. A few of my CG compadres have made some money after leaving the service, but interestingly, it was mostly in businesses that they inherited. None of them actually created anything from scratch.
Pretty sure Mark Zuckerberg wasn’t a cool kid. He’s a billionaire, but notably, leads a very uninteresting personal life. Elon Musk on the other hand, another toolbox, has had more wives and kids than he can keep track of. Silicon Valley is full of people who were ridiculed as adolescents and went onto top universities with others who were ridiculed as adolescents, and now run the country. Seems like karmic justice to me. I think my middling level of success is best explained by my middling level of popularity in school.
Karma hit Wall Street pretty hard, too. It used to be full of lax bros. A subscriber of mine, who is older, told me that in his early days at Salomon Brothers in the 80s and 90s, he was one of only a handful of people on the trading floor with a college diploma. The people at some of the quant trading firms nowadays don’t fit the Wall Street mold at all. They’re freaks and geeks, math and physics PhDs, and they’ve been successful in downsizing all these rent-seeking sales traders with their Ferragamo ties. Revenge of the Nerds. Don’t show that movie nowadays—yeesh.
So what is next in my future? Hopefully bigger and better things. I am of the philosophy that you should never peak—just keep growing and learning right up until the very end. The minute you stop evolving, you might as well check yourself into the nursing home and watch Judge Steve Harvey on daytime TV. I mean, fuck, I’m getting another master’s degree at the age of 48. I know of only one other person who has both an MBA and an MFA. And I won’t rule out getting another one, either. I’m going to go back to teaching at the university level next year—and my goal is to teach finance and writing at the same time. How do you like them apples?
If you asked me when I was 28 where I thought I would be when I was 48, well…I didn’t have much of an imagination. The only thing that I am sure of is that the future will be even more wonderful. More money, sure, more toys, sure—but also more philanthropy and donating my money and time. And I’m not virtue signaling. The older I get, the more I realize how much I have to offer the world, above and beyond just writing checks. Yes, I think The Daily Dirtnap will get to 10,000 subscribers someday, but even if it doesn’t, I will still be spending a lot of time on causes that are important to me.
All I know is that I will never peak. The chart of Jared Dillian will keep going from the lower left to the upper right. Until I croak, at which point it will look like the Taleb turkey chart. Which seems like a metaphor for something.
Go fuck yourself,
Jared
Music Recommendation: I recently appeared on DJ Adam Silver’s radio show: the Global Dance Collective. It’s fucking incredible. So it’s a two hour show, and Adam does his thing in the first hour, mostly house and tech house, then he turns it over to me for the second hour. One of my best performances. Check it out here:
P.S. We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards will always be free. Feel free to forward to whoever you like.
"...paying alimony out the wazoo" then they hardly ever see their kids and they just keep paying the child support and alimony, but life is boring so they find a younger woman, fun times, wild sex, lots of laughs, she nothing like the first wife, then they marry and have kids then the younger turns into what the first wife was, then they divorce. Serious stuff man. People seem to love pain.
Reminded me of the time I was driving home from college and one of the cool kids from HS was working the toll booth. We exchanged hellos and it was a pleasant interaction, but we’ve all said “that job must suck” so I hope things picked up for him.